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Novomoskovsk Pipe Plan is the third largest Ukrainian
pipe producer by output specializing in welded pipes. The wide product range
in the medium diameter segment allows the company to enjoy robust demand
for its items. NVTR is expected to benefit greatly from the vertical integration at
the Interpipe holding level. In turn Interpipe is going to IPO on LSE, which
additionally makes NVTR stock promising. NVTR is expected to increase its
charter fund by 16.7 times to adjust its capital structure. If the share price does
not fully adjust, which is typical for the Ukrainian stock market, participation in
the equity increase will earn an additional return for shareholders. We set our
12-month theoretical target price at USD41.8 with an upside of 50% and
recommend to Buy the stock and to participate in the equity issue.
(04.04.2008) Ticker: NVTR - Sector: Pipes |
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Yasynivka Coke Plant is Ukraine’s sixthlargest
coke producer with 8.5% of domestic coke output. Despite the hard
times of an acute coking coal deficit, YASK looks good thanks to its “strong
back” represented by its parent – Donetskstal Group – the most coal selfsufficient
metallurgical group. Also, YASK produces coke of superior quality
which will always be in demand. YASK’s ability to buy coal at moderate
prices and set deserved prices for its quality coke will enable it to boost
effective capacities in 2009-2011. We expect YASK to reconstruct one
currently operated and three idle coke batteries (CB) by 2011. As a result
YASK’s output in 2011 could be 1.5 to 2 times higher than presently. Our
valuations imply a 12-month price target of USD1.57 with an upside of 35.9%
and therefore we recommend to Accumulate the stock.
(04.04.2008) Ticker: YASK - Sector: Coke |
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Bogdan Automobile Plant is successfully
implementing its USD 310mn investment program aimed at increasing
production. Thus a new plant making 120,000 units per year will be launched in
Cherkasy in May 2008. As a result passenger car production capacity will triple
to about 160,000 cars per year by 2009. Also, the consolidation of Bogdan
Corporation’s production assets will be based on Bogdan Automobile Plant. As
a result LUAZ will center bus production capacities that are slated to reach
9,500 units per year in 2009 as well as increase profitability due to the
integration and resulting synergy. Therefore we anticipate improving company
financials and upgrade our 12-month target price to USD0.348 with an upside
of 52% and recommend to Buy the stock.
(14.02.2008) Ticker: LUAZ - Sector: 0 |
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After struggling for many months to match last year’s output, thermal GenCos are back on the fast track with a vengeance as they overtake nuclear generators in y/y growth. Centrenergo was leading the way in the final months of 2007 as the company benefited, somewhat unexpectedly, from its ability to run gas-fired units. The gas-fueled increase in costs should not hurt the bottom line too much as the regulator has indicated its willingness to see higher than forecasted electricity prices. We believe the latest improvements in output/sales coupled with the better outlook brought about by the recently announced market liberalization could bring only a modest price increase to the stock, which holds, in our view, a 6.1% upside over the 12 months ahead. We therefore rate CEEN a Hold.
(25.01.2008) Ticker: CEEN - Sector: Power utilities |
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